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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Stephen writes on Global Warming

Ice core testing in the polar regions has enabled climate analysis going back some 600,000 years. Basically a core of ice is extracted reaching hundreds of metres into the ice caps and chemical analysis of air bubbles within the ice enables an assessment of the level of carbon dioxide and the temperature at the time the ice bubble was formed. The scientists can differentiate years because the ice is in layers (a bit like tree rings). No rocket science here.

Graphing these levels of carbon dioxide and temperature it is possible to see 6 major periods of variation over the available data. The drops in temperature match with time periods in other types of climate measurement data and highlight what we know as "ice ages" or periods when the global temperatures were low enough to freeze things over.

Carbon dioxide levels track the temperatures fairly closely over these years. The more recent (last 30 years) carbon dioxide levels are significantly increasing. In fact the increase is well above levels ever recorded before. The hottest 10 years ever recorded occurred in the past 15 years. 2005 was the hottest.

Climate modelling based on predicted increases in global carbon dioxide emissions suggests the global temperature rise could lead to summer temperatures in temperate zones like Sydney reaching 55 degrees Celcius in the next decade. It also predicts that equatorial zones will be inhabitable around 2030. Where will all the people from equatorial countries go? Given they are mostly 3rd world countries, do you think they might be a bit ticked-off with the developed world?

Some modelling indicates global sea level rises that will put cities like London and parts of Melbourne under water. One climate model indicates there is a 1 percent chance that life as we know it on earth will cease. The heating effects here remind one of aspects of the book of Revelation.

But it's not all bad news. There are still things we can do. Although USA and Australia (the big polluters) have not signed the Kyoto carbon dioxide emission control protocols, the ground swell of people political pressure will soon see this change. Many states and cities in the US have declared they will conform to Kyoto.

I want my children to have a future. I don't want to risk the big business push back that is trying to convince people that Greenhouse is all hog wash. Just think back to asbestos and smoking, we've heard these mistruths before.

An alternate view is that the predictions of revelations are meant to be.


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